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Tony R. Elliott is an established writer with articles in American Chronicle, Fate Magazine, Divine Caroline and various publications of differing topics. His new book titled Aura Visions: The Origin's Prophecy is available at his website http://auravisions.weebly.com/. He was a Political Commentary Columnist for the Cimarron News Press in Cimarron, New Mexico from 2001 to 2003 generating the controversy for which he was hired. He also was a regular writer for several small coastal newspapers in Southern Oregon during the early 1990s. Thanks: Tony R. Elliott. You can email Tony at tonyr_elliott@hotmail.com.
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This is of one of a series of post-tsunami images that were photographed from the International Space Station on January 13, 2005. |
The use of computer models in determining any scientific outcome whether natural or human should be outlawed as pseudoscience because of the high percentage rate of inaccuracy.
The recent Pacific wide tsunami warning issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center was a classic example of the flawed technology of using computer models to try to predict natural occurrences based on an event.
In the case of predicting tsunamis information of the magnitude of the quake, location, surface movement whether horizontal or vertical and depth are fed into computers for a generated model of outcome. In the case of the Chilean quake the computer models were way off base as no tsunami anywhere close to the model manifested. Fantastic news for everyone living on the Pacific coast but lousy forecasting from those who we depend on for accurate information.
The PTWC has been wrong many times in the past using this same technology. It was great that no tsunami of any proportion was actually generated by this quake and that they were wrong this time. However if it were the other way around and these computer models showed no wave generated by the quake from information given to them and no warning was issued but a large Pacific wide wave was actually generated we would have had hundreds of thousands of deaths from unsuspecting coastal dwellers, not to mention the outrage at these clowns for using such a flawed type of technology.
The PTWC has but minutes to complete its computer model showing a scenario when it comes to trying to predict the size and scope of tsunamis. Yet with all the information at hand the percentage rate of success is astoundingly low.
This same computer generated modeling of a certain scenario is used by these same so called scientists and others in attempting to predict Global Warming. The only difference here is that they have several decades of information on past climate variations, pollutant level predictions and geographical data that go into the program for the model. With such a great time span involved concerning climate research and inaccurate information based on a desired outcome introduced to the computer program for the model it isn't at all surprising that such a technological technique would have a high rate of misses.
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